The hottest new trend of urbanization development

New trend of China's urbanization development

new trend of China's urbanization development

July 27, 2020

in the stage of rapid urbanization growth, the short-term fluctuation of economic growth has little impact on urbanization. Urbanization is manifested as a social phenomenon -

new trend of China's urbanization development

in 2019, China's urbanization rate was 60.6%, and urbanization development is gradually maturing, The development trend of urbanization in China is the basic premise for formulating urbanization development policies in the new era, and it is also an important basis for formulating macroeconomic policies

reference to the experience of urbanization development in typical countries

urbanization development is a social and historical process, and the development experience of relevant countries can provide experience for us to make judgments. We use the relevant data of the world bank database, select France, Japan and South Korea that have experienced the rapid urbanization development process for comparative research, and use the relevant data of the case country after the urbanization has entered 60% to analyze the paint

in the 1960s, the characteristics of simple urbanization in France and Japan just exceeded 60%, and the urbanization rate in South Korea exceeded 60% in 1982, both of which are in the stage of rapid urbanization development. In the 15 years since 1961, the annual growth rate of urbanization in Japan has remained at 0 94 percentage points, the difference between peak and trough is only 0.2 percentage points; France and South Korea can be divided into two obvious stages. There are obvious differences in the growth rate of urbanization in the two stages. The growth rate of the second stage is significantly lower than that of the first stage, but the growth rate of urbanization in each stage can be maintained at a relatively stable state

the correlation between urbanization growth and economic growth in that year is not strong, and urbanization shows a trend independent of short-term economic growth. In the 1960s, Japan's annual economic growth rate was the highest of 12.9% and the lowest of -1%, which fluctuated greatly, but the urbanization rate increased steadily at 0 94 percentage points. The fluctuation range of economic growth in France is more than 50%, while the annual growth rate of urbanization is not very volatile. In the 1980s, the highest annual economic growth rate in South Korea was 13.2%, and the lowest was 7%, while the annual growth rate of urbanization was stable at 1 88 percentage points. It can be seen that urbanization can maintain a relatively stable growth trend relative to the rate of economic growth

in addition, when the rapid urbanization development process of the case country is nearing the end and is about to enter the mature stage of urbanization, the urbanization growth rate will decline rapidly, in sharp contrast to the previous growth rate. On the whole, there is a trend of excess production capacity. Urbanization is not only an economic phenomenon, but also a social phenomenon. The differences between urban and rural economy and society are an important driving force for the development of urbanization; In the stage of rapid urbanization growth, the short-term fluctuation of economic growth has little impact on urbanization. Urbanization is a social phenomenon, which can maintain a relatively stable growth rate; With the gradual maturity of urbanization, the growth rate of urbanization is also gradually decreasing, but it can still maintain a relatively high growth rate until it enters the mature stage. After urbanization enters the mature stage, the growth rate of urbanization will decline rapidly

in the long run, economic factors have a significant impact on the quality of urbanization development. Urbanization without the support of economic growth will bring a series of serious social problems, such as excessive urbanization and urban disease in Latin American countries. When urbanization is mature, the production efficiency of urban and rural labor forces will also reach a relatively balanced state

China's urbanization has the basic conditions to maintain a rapid growth rate

the experience of urbanization development in typical countries shows that the trend of rapid urbanization growth in China is still on, and the basic conditions for rapid urbanization growth are still on

there is a large deviation between employment structure and industrial structure, and the momentum of structural transformation is still there. Population from rural areas to cities and towns, from agriculture to non-agricultural industries, the resulting structural adjustment is a huge driving force for economic growth. At present, the production efficiency gap between China's non-agricultural industry and agriculture is still large. In 2018, the labor productivity of China's non-agricultural industry was 4.6 times that of the agricultural sector, while the average level of high-income countries was 2 Five times, which means that the power of labor transfer from agriculture to non-agricultural industries and rural population to cities is very strong. In 2019, the employment proportion of China's primary industry was 25.1%, and the employment proportion has decreased by about 1.4 percentage points annually since 2010; The proportion of output value of the first industry is only 7.1%, and the proportion of output value has decreased by about 0.26 percentage points annually since 2010. At the current rate, it will take more than 10 years to reach equilibrium. Compared with the rapid transformation of urban and rural population and industrial structure, the transformation of employment structure lags behind, which also provides sufficient impetus for China's economic growth and urbanization development in the future. The kinetic energy of China's rapid urbanization development is still strong. However, we should also see that the transformation of employment structure is a long-term process, and the difficulty of the transformation of employment structure is increasing. The future urbanization development needs a more inclusive policy system

urbanization development has great inertia, and the trend of maintaining rapid growth is still in progress. Compared with economic growth, population transfer and urbanization have greater inertia. After nearly two decades of rapid urbanization, population exchanges between urban and rural areas in China have become increasingly frequent. Some people have entered cities and towns, but they have not been fully included in the scope of urban population statistics. It is the general trend to integrate into cities in the future, which is the inertia of Urbanization development. For example, in 2018, the number of primary school students in urban areas accounted for 74.2% of the number of primary school students nationwide, and 86.1% of junior high school students. In the future, when the existing primary and secondary school students enter the labor age and the labor market, the vast majority will continue to stay in cities and towns, forming a strong support for the growth of urbanization. From the development process of urbanization in developed countries, in the rapid development stage of urbanization, there is a great inertia in the transfer of population from rural to urban areas. At present, the rural population in China also goes to cities to pursue a better level of public services and to enjoy more opportunities for urban development. Social factors have an important impact on urbanization, so there is a great inertia in the development of urbanization

the kinetic energy of economic growth has changed, and its supporting role for the development of urbanization has been strengthened. With the change of external conditions and the transformation of development stage, the decline of China's economic growth is inevitable. The healthy development of urbanization cannot be separated from the support of economic growth, which is mainly reflected in providing non-agricultural employment opportunities for the urban population. At present, the driving force of economic growth has changed fundamentally, and has changed from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry. In 2019, the added value of the service industry accounted for 53.9% of GDP, and its contribution to national economic growth was close to 60%. Changes in the structure and dynamics of economic growth have reduced the dependence of new urban employment on economic growth. In general, for every 1 percentage point increase in China's GDP during the "Eleventh Five Year Plan" period, about 1million new urban jobs will be created. By 2019, China's GDP will increase by 1 percentage point, and more than 2million new urban jobs will be created. The elasticity between urban new employment and economic growth has become greater. Although the economic growth rate is declining, it has little impact on urban new employment. Urban Bayer materials technology has 30 production bases in the world and about 14200 employees. New employment can also support the healthy development of urbanization

new features of urbanization development

during the "14th five year plan" period, China's urbanization will still maintain a relatively rapid growth rate. We must fully consider the impact of the rapid development of urbanization on the economy and society. At the same time, we should also see that urbanization development will show some new features, which need to be fully considered and adjusted when formulating urbanization policies

the proportion of population mobility between cities and towns continues to increase. According to the monitoring data of migrant workers from the National Bureau of statistics, the total number of migrant workers increased by only 0.8% in 2019, and the growth rate has been less than 1% for two consecutive years. Among migrant workers, the number of migrant workers living in cities and towns did not increase at the end of the year, and the total amount of population transfer between rural and urban areas has stabilized or even decreased. The floating population monitoring results of the National Health Commission show that the proportion of inter County floating population and inter provincial floating population in the province has increased, and the proportion of inter urban floating population has increased. Our monitoring data using signaling shows that among the new inter city floating population, the proportion of counties and urban areas as outflow areas was 36.1% in 2017, increased to 39.2% in 2018, and reached 45.1% in 2019, showing a rapid upward trend. At the same time of promoting the citizenization of migrant workers in the future, we need to pay more attention to the problem of inter urban floating population. With the increase of the floating population between cities and towns, the urbanization development model needs to change from the population entering the city to meeting the good life of the urban and rural population. Urbanization should change from the goal of rural population settling in cities and towns to the pursuit of public services and comprehensive and equal supply of development opportunities

the proportion of carrying population in big cities has increased, and cities have differentiated. China's cities and towns implement a hierarchical management system, and high-quality public service resources are concentrated in high-grade big cities. With the improvement of income level, the population has a stronger demand for a better life, and high-quality public services are the main content of a better life. In the past, restricted by the registered residence system, the entry threshold of large cities with high administrative levels was higher. With the deepening of urbanization reform, the entry threshold of various cities was reduced, and more and more people flow to large cities with higher public services, which is also the embodiment of their longing for a better life. At the fifth meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission in 2019, it was proposed that "central cities and urban agglomerations are becoming the main spatial forms carrying development elements". There is a polarization phenomenon between cities, the floating population between cities is increasing, the proportion of population absorbed by big cities is rising, and the urbanization is inevitable. Our research shows that the proportion of population absorbed by provincial capital cities is increasing, and the proportion of population absorbed by local cities is decreasing in some places where population flows out

the impact of population aging on urbanization has intensified, and the proportion of household transfer has increased. It is estimated that during the "14th five year plan" period, the number of people over 60 years old in China will increase by 48.7 million, which is 1.35 times that during the "13th five year plan" period. The reduction rate of the working age population will accelerate, and the transition period will begin in 2022. The population aged 60 in 2022 will exceed 20million, while in 2021 it will be only about 11million. According to the monitoring data of migrant workers from the National Bureau of statistics, the average age of migrant workers in 2018 was 40.2 years old, an increase of 0.5 years over the previous year, and the average age of local migrant workers has reached 44.9 years old. According to the 2018 floating population development report of the National Health Commission, the size of the elderly floating population increased rapidly after 2000, from 5.03 million in 2000 to 13.04 million in 2015, with an average annual growth of 6.6%. With the transformation of population structure and the deepening reform of urban registered residence system, the population transfer in the process of urbanization in China will move from a golden age labor force to a nuclear family based stage

urban renewal has become an important part of urban development. After 40 years of 3. The indication error shows "positive before negative" or "negative before positive after positive" on the scale, and individual points are out of tolerance. The urban built-up area in China has expanded by 7.3 times since 1981. At the same time, there are a large number of old urban buildings, and the demand for the renewal and reconstruction of old cities is increasingly obvious. From the experience of developed countries, when urbanization is approaching maturity, urban renewal has become an important part of urbanization. The United States began to promote urban renewal and transformation in the housing law passed in 1949. In 1950, the urbanization rate of the United States was 64%, and Japan promulgated and implemented the urban redevelopment act in 1969. In that year, the urbanization rate of Japan was 71%, and China is taking over